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Risk Intelligence

13 risk factors. Every vessel. Automatically.

AIS gap detection, STS transfer monitoring, draft cargo mismatches, vessel loitering, identity change tracking, destination reliability scoring, and P&I insurance coverage — scored and weighted into a single risk score for every vessel in the fleet.

AIS Gap Detection

Vessels that disable their AIS transponder create a gap in position history. We detect these gaps, calculate gap duration and location, and flag vessels that went dark near sanctioned zones or high-risk corridors.

Gaps under 2 hours flagged; gaps over 6 hours trigger high-risk score

STS Transfer Detection

Ship-to-ship transfers allow cargo to change hands outside port records. We detect vessel pairs that loiter in proximity at sea, cross-reference timing with AIS gaps, and surface transfers that match known evasion patterns.

Proximity threshold: 500m for 30+ minutes in open water

Draft Cargo Mismatch

When a vessel reports a light cargo type but shows a loaded draft, or claims a heavy load but sits high in the water, the physics do not match the paperwork. We flag every departure where declared cargo and measured draft diverge beyond tolerance.

Mismatch threshold: >15% variance between declared and calculated tonnage

Vessel Loitering

Extended time at anchor outside designated anchorage zones, or unusual slow-steaming near territorial boundaries, indicates waiting for instructions or rendezvous. Loitering patterns correlate with STS transfers and unreported stops.

Loitering defined as speed under 1 knot for 4+ hours outside anchorage zone

Identity Change Tracking

Dark fleet vessels frequently change names, flags, and IMO-linked identifiers to evade sanctions lists. We track MMSI and IMO number changes over vessel history and surface vessels with suspicious re-registration patterns.

Over 2,400 identity change events tracked across the monitored fleet

P&I Insurance Coverage

Legitimate vessels carry P&I club insurance. Sanctioned and dark fleet vessels often operate without coverage or use opaque mutuals. We track club membership status and flag vessels operating without verifiable P&I coverage.

Coverage status checked against International Group P&I clubs in real time

Destination Reliability Scoring

Per-vessel accuracy scoring tracks how often a vessel actually arrives at its declared destination. Vessels with low reliability scores — those that frequently deviate from filed routes — receive elevated risk weighting across all other factors.

Per-vessel accuracy score computed from historical destination vs. actual arrival

Risk Intelligence — Axiom Overwatch | Axiom Overwatch