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The Flow Report

Commodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence

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Recurring Figure

Congestion Tracker

Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.

Singapore leads with 143.5h median wait and 289 vessels waiting.

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🔍AnalysisMay 12, 2026·4 min read

Open Water Is Where Vessels Come Closest. 16.7% of Open-Sea Encounters Pass Within 0.1nm — 49% More Than Anchorage.

Open-sea encounters achieve an average minimum range of 0.464nm — shorter than approach channels or anchorages. 16.7% pass within 0.1nm. The detection system classifies them 46 minutes after the closest-approach moment has passed....

pairwise_encounter_cpa_geometrysignal[object Object]approach[object Object]open sea[object Object]anchorage
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERCPA-GEOMETRYENCOUNTER-CONTEXTOPEN-SEACOLREGS
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Archive

2,241 Vessels Made an Unexplained 94-Degree Course Change at 7 Knots Last Month. They Were Avoiding Something That Wasn't Broadcasting AIS.

May 7, 2026

57% of Predicted Hormuz Transits Disappear Before They Reach the Exit Zone. Bab-el-Mandeb Loses 9%.

May 7, 2026

4,578 High-Severity Behavioral Motifs, Zero Acknowledged: AIS Manipulation Makes Up 42% of the Fleet Alert Stack

May 5, 2026

197 Shell Hops, 425 MMSI Changes, 383 Renames: The 1,005 Identity Mutation Events in 33 Days

May 5, 2026

47% of Vessel Visits Do Not Have Draft Data. The Cargo Estimate You Are Reading Is a Fallback.

May 1, 2026

Rule 17 in the Wild: 72,113 Handoffs, 75% Extremis, and What That Says About Who Is Actually Avoiding Collisions

May 1, 2026

Port Dwell Distributions: Newcastle 2.8×, Houston 13.6×. The Tail Ratio Predicts Demurrage Risk.

Apr 29, 2026

Recalibrating Risk Tiers Surfaces 1,702 Dark Events; 66% Cluster in the Singapore Strait

Apr 28, 2026

6.4% of AIS Pings Don't Say Where They're Going. The Rest Spell Houston Seven Different Ways.

Apr 28, 2026

Singapore Strait Holds 65% Ship-to-Ship Share While Rotterdam Climbs to 59%: The STS Subtype Reads Differently From the Atlas

Apr 27, 2026

Vessel-Class Kinematic Signatures: Tanker Noise, Bulk Precision, and the 6× Gap Where Spoofing Hides

Apr 24, 2026

Dark Events Across Eight Chokepoints: Every Port Has Its Own Gap-Duration Risk Curve

Apr 24, 2026

Draft-Survey Commodity Flow Estimates: 13.2M Tons at US Gulf, 2.4M Tons at Newcastle, and the Mississippi Spring Constraint

Apr 24, 2026

Vessel Identity Risk: How Flag State, Class Rarity, Phantom Fleets, and Name Changes Each Contribute to the Same Sanctions Exposure

Apr 24, 2026

From Field to Port: How We Built Commodity Intelligence From Five Government APIs

Apr 10, 2026

What Axiom Overwatch Is — and Who It's For

Apr 9, 2026

How We Turn AIS Signals into Maritime Intelligence

Apr 9, 2026

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