The Flow Report
Live IntelligenceCommodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence
158.8M positions66k vessels·76 engines
66 reports
Recurring Figure
Congestion Tracker
Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.
Rotterdam leads with 13.2h median wait and 491 vessels waiting.
🔍AnalysisJul 14, 2026·5 min read
246,754 Open-Sea Give-Way Inaction Encounters in 90 Days. 51% End in Rule 17 Deviation. No One Is Watching This Context.
246,754 open-sea give-way inaction encounters in 90 days. 51.1% end in Rule 17 deviation with median DCPA of 0.114nm — the same geometry as approach channels at 4.9× the volume....
open_seacontextgiveway_inactiontrigger0.1142p50 dcpa nm90window days
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTIONOPEN-SEARULE17COLREGS
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🔍Analysis
Ship-to-Ship Transfer Has Retaken the 30-Day Lead. 95.5% of Dark Manipulation Alerts Are Sub-Max Confidence. The Combined Queue Is 76,315 Alerts With Zero Reviews.
STS filed 24,191 alerts in the last 30 days — 717 more than dark manipulation. STS runs at 1.000 confidence. Dark runs at 0.820. Neither queue has a single acknowledgment.
Jul 10, 2026·4 min
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERAIS-MANIPULATION-DARK
🔍Analysis
Extremis Is the Dominant Rule 17 Path. Every One of the 669,182 Closed Within 185 Meters.
In 2.89 million encounters over 90 days, the most common Rule 17 trigger wasn't give-way failure — it was extremis. All 669,182 closed within 0.1nm. Median approach: 54 meters.
Jul 7, 2026·4 min
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTEREXTREMIS-TRIGGER
Archive
AIS Position Spoofing Went Silent 53 Days Ago. Dark Manipulation Filed 27,318 Alerts in the Same Month.
AIS-MANIPULATION-SPOOFAIS-MANIPULATION-DARK
Jul 7, 2026The Vessel Ownership Layer Has Been Frozen for 52 Days. The 843 Vessels With Obfuscated Identity Edges Don't Show Up Anywhere Else in the Graph.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHIDENTITY-OBFUSCATION
Jul 3, 2026A 5th Motif Class Entered the Queue at Maximum Confidence. The Other 4 Have Produced 66,973 Alerts in 88 Days. Zero Have Been Reviewed.
DESTINATION-LAUNDERINGMOTIF-ALERTS
Jul 3, 2026Gulf Anchorage Rings Produce 61% of Dark Events. They Represent 28% of Tracked Vessel-Hours.
DARK-EVENTSGULF-ANCHORAGE
Jun 26, 2026AIS_manipulation_dark Overtook STS Three Weeks Ago. 26,246 Alerts. Zero Acknowledged.
AIS-MANIPULATION-DARKMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 23, 2026124,170 Unsubtyped Dark Events. Subtype Classifiers Have Been Silent Since May 20. 2,066 of Them Are Critical.
DARK-EVENTSSUBTYPE-FREEZE
Jun 23, 2026A New Motif Fired for the First Time Yesterday. 55 High-Severity Alerts, Zero Acknowledged, Entering a 44,573-Deep Queue.
FRAUDULENT-DOCUMENTATIONMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 19, 2026Give-Way Inaction in Approach Channels Produces 0.251nm Average CPA — the Tightest Geometry in 1.97 Million Encounters.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jun 16, 2026The Vessel Ownership Graph Has Produced Zero New Records in 34 Days. Every Active Temporal Edge Is Now an Obfuscation Event.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHOWNERSHIP-FREEZE
Jun 16, 202663% of Nighttime Vessel-Hours Concentrate in 8% of H3 Cells. They Are Offshore Anchorage Rings, Not Port Approaches.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
Jun 12, 2026Anchorage Encounters Produce Rule 17 Deviations at a Higher Rate Than Approach Channels. 1.9 Million Encounters Across Three Contexts.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERRULE17
Jun 9, 202683.3% Coverage Is Not 83.3% Accuracy: Only 1.24% of Vessel Visits Use a Draft-Survey-Derived Cargo Estimate
HYDROSTATIC-CARGOCARGO-ESTIMATION
Jun 9, 2026Rule 17 Stand-On Vessel Class: Tankers Are Named in 31% of Extremis Events and Represent 22% of the Tracked Fleet
RULE17STAND-ON-VESSEL
Jun 5, 202671,663 Approach Channel Encounters Ended With Give-Way Failure. Average CPA: 0.247nm — the Closest of Any Context in the Dataset.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jun 2, 20264,361 STS Transfer Alerts in 45 Days. Zero Acknowledged. Ship-to-Ship Transfer Is Now the Dominant Behavioral Motif.
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 2, 20268,400 Dark Events in 45 Days. The Nav Status at Gap-Start Cuts the Actionable Queue by 14%.
DARK-EVENTSNAV-STATUS
May 29, 20262,894 Vessel Loitering Events in 45 Days. Two Reached High Risk. Context Determines the Classification.
LOITERING-EVENTSRISK-TIER
May 26, 2026Recent Departures
DELTARotterdam · unknown
13ktZJE OCEAN 1Gladstone · coal
115ktSEVAN LOUISIANANew Orleans · unknown
49ktMYNYSingapore · grain
60ktSYLVIARouen · grain
18ktOMIROS LNew Orleans · grain
106kt