The Flow Report
Live IntelligenceCommodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence
193.0M positions86k vessels·76 engines
72 reports
Recurring Figure
Congestion Tracker
Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.
Columbia River leads with 45.0h median wait and 43 vessels waiting.
🔍AnalysisJul 31, 2026·4 min read
84.8% of Vessel Cargo Estimates Are Zero. The Method That Produces Zero for Every Single Visit Has a Higher Confidence Score Than the Method That Reads Draft Data.
96.5% coverage masks an 84.8% zero rate. The confidence score assigned to methods that always return zero is higher than the score for the method that reads draft data....
254640max cargo mt110372total visits0.799max draft conf16209nonzero visits
HYDROSTATIC-CARGOCARGO-ESTIMATIONCONFIDENCE-SCOREZERO-CARGOMETHOD-COVERAGEVESSEL-VISITSCOMPLIANCE-GAP
Read article
🔍Analysis
473 Shell Company Hops. None Have Ever Closed. Commercial Management Has 12,458 Active Edges and Has Closed Zero.
473 vessel identity graph edges are flagged as shell company hops. None have ever closed. Commercial management has 12,458 active edges and an expiry rate of zero.
Jul 24, 2026·3 min
SHELL-HOPTEMPORAL-GRAPH
🔍Analysis
1,011 Fraudulent Documentation Alerts in 33 Days. Every One at Maximum Confidence. Zero Reviewed.
1,011 fraudulent documentation alerts in 33 days, 925 unique vessels flagged at 1.000 confidence. Zero reviewed. The newest motif class is growing faster than any prior one.
Jul 21, 2026·4 min
FRAUDULENT-DOCUMENTATIONMOTIF-ALERTS
Archive
15,942 Impossible Kinematics Events in 90 Days. Low-Risk Gaps Average 104.8 Hours. High-Risk Gaps Average 17.6 Hours. The Anomaly Score Is Nearly Identical.
IMPOSSIBLE-KINEMATICSDARK-EVENTS
Jul 21, 2026180,310 Solo Dark Events in 90 Days. The Multi-Vessel Coordination Layer Found 7 Clusters. None Were Critical.
DARK-EVENTSMULTI-VESSEL
Jul 17, 202641% of Global AIS Positions Come From "Other." That Category Has No Informative Classification. It Also Has the Most Positions.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
Jul 14, 2026246,754 Open-Sea Give-Way Inaction Encounters in 90 Days. 51% End in Rule 17 Deviation. No One Is Watching This Context.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jul 14, 2026Ship-to-Ship Transfer Has Retaken the 30-Day Lead. 95.5% of Dark Manipulation Alerts Are Sub-Max Confidence. The Combined Queue Is 76,315 Alerts With Zero Reviews.
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERAIS-MANIPULATION-DARK
Jul 10, 2026Extremis Is the Dominant Rule 17 Path. Every One of the 669,182 Closed Within 185 Meters.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTEREXTREMIS-TRIGGER
Jul 7, 2026AIS Position Spoofing Went Silent 53 Days Ago. Dark Manipulation Filed 27,318 Alerts in the Same Month.
AIS-MANIPULATION-SPOOFAIS-MANIPULATION-DARK
Jul 7, 2026The Vessel Ownership Layer Has Been Frozen for 52 Days. The 843 Vessels With Obfuscated Identity Edges Don't Show Up Anywhere Else in the Graph.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHIDENTITY-OBFUSCATION
Jul 3, 2026A 5th Motif Class Entered the Queue at Maximum Confidence. The Other 4 Have Produced 66,973 Alerts in 88 Days. Zero Have Been Reviewed.
DESTINATION-LAUNDERINGMOTIF-ALERTS
Jul 3, 2026Gulf Anchorage Rings Produce 61% of Dark Events. They Represent 28% of Tracked Vessel-Hours.
DARK-EVENTSGULF-ANCHORAGE
Jun 26, 2026AIS_manipulation_dark Overtook STS Three Weeks Ago. 26,246 Alerts. Zero Acknowledged.
AIS-MANIPULATION-DARKMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 23, 2026124,170 Unsubtyped Dark Events. Subtype Classifiers Have Been Silent Since May 20. 2,066 of Them Are Critical.
DARK-EVENTSSUBTYPE-FREEZE
Jun 23, 2026A New Motif Fired for the First Time Yesterday. 55 High-Severity Alerts, Zero Acknowledged, Entering a 44,573-Deep Queue.
FRAUDULENT-DOCUMENTATIONMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 19, 2026Give-Way Inaction in Approach Channels Produces 0.251nm Average CPA — the Tightest Geometry in 1.97 Million Encounters.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Jun 16, 2026The Vessel Ownership Graph Has Produced Zero New Records in 34 Days. Every Active Temporal Edge Is Now an Obfuscation Event.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHOWNERSHIP-FREEZE
Jun 16, 202663% of Nighttime Vessel-Hours Concentrate in 8% of H3 Cells. They Are Offshore Anchorage Rings, Not Port Approaches.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
Jun 12, 2026Anchorage Encounters Produce Rule 17 Deviations at a Higher Rate Than Approach Channels. 1.9 Million Encounters Across Three Contexts.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERRULE17
Jun 9, 2026Recent Departures
ALISIOSBaltimore · bulk_unknown
53ktWOOLLOOMOOLOONewcastle · coal
48ktDARYA RASHMISantos · grain
27ktENERGY GLORYGladstone · coal
54ktXIN LIAN YUN GANGHamburg · grain
15ktMADREDEUSGladstone · coal
54kt