The Flow Report
Live IntelligenceCommodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence
193.0M positions86k vessels·76 engines
72 reports
Recurring Figure
Congestion Tracker
Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.
Columbia River leads with 57.7h median wait and 41 vessels waiting.
🔍AnalysisJun 9, 2026·5 min read
83.3% Coverage Is Not 83.3% Accuracy: Only 1.24% of Vessel Visits Use a Draft-Survey-Derived Cargo Estimate
The hydrostatic coverage headline counts zero-cargo placeholders and population fallbacks as estimates. In 60 days and 41,377 vessel visits, only 514 used the draft-survey-derived method....
60window days36.6fallback pct41377total visits1.24trim saline pct
HYDROSTATIC-CARGOCARGO-ESTIMATIONDRAFT-SURVEYMETHOD-COVERAGEVESSEL-VISITS
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🔍Analysis
Rule 17 Stand-On Vessel Class: Tankers Are Named in 31% of Extremis Events and Represent 22% of the Tracked Fleet
When Rule 17 extremis situations occur, the stand-on vessel is a tanker 31% of the time — 9 points above fleet share. In approach channels the figure hits 38%. The class distribution is the layer below the aggregate extremis rate.
Jun 5, 2026·3 min
RULE17STAND-ON-VESSEL
🔍Analysis
71,663 Approach Channel Encounters Ended With Give-Way Failure. Average CPA: 0.247nm — the Closest of Any Context in the Dataset.
In the 45 days ending June 2, 2026, 516,368 vessel encounters were logged in approach zones — the constrained navigational corridors leading
Jun 2, 2026·5 min
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERGIVEWAY-INACTION
Archive
4,361 STS Transfer Alerts in 45 Days. Zero Acknowledged. Ship-to-Ship Transfer Is Now the Dominant Behavioral Motif.
SHIP-TO-SHIP-TRANSFERMOTIF-ALERTS
Jun 2, 20268,400 Dark Events in 45 Days. The Nav Status at Gap-Start Cuts the Actionable Queue by 14%.
DARK-EVENTSNAV-STATUS
May 29, 20262,894 Vessel Loitering Events in 45 Days. Two Reached High Risk. Context Determines the Classification.
LOITERING-EVENTSRISK-TIER
May 26, 2026Norfolk Bulk Carriers Wait 127 Hours. Houston Median Is 9. One Statistic Contains Both Facts.
PORT-CONGESTIONBULK-CARRIER
May 26, 202697% of Dark Events Get No Subtype. The 3% That Do Run 8x Longer.
DARK-EVENTSSUBTYPE-TAXONOMY
May 22, 2026Every vessel page now carries an ownership dossier
VESSEL-INTELLIGENCECORPORATE-IDENTITY
May 22, 20262,607 Vessels Reappeared at Physically Impossible Locations in 30 Days. The Subtype Is Called impossible_kinematics.
IMPOSSIBLE-KINEMATICSDARK-EVENTS
May 19, 2026Mexico Leads US Grain Export Events at 129. China Receives 43. China's Per-Event Volume Is 56% Higher. The Difference Is Vessel Class.
GRAIN-DESTINATIONBULK-CARGO
May 19, 20265.3% of the Vessel Graph Is Mutation Edges. Shell Hops Average 13-Day Tenure. That Asymmetry Is the Screening Problem.
TEMPORAL-GRAPHRELATION-TYPE
May 15, 2026Open Water Is Where Vessels Come Closest. 16.7% of Open-Sea Encounters Pass Within 0.1nm — 49% More Than Anchorage.
PAIRWISE-ENCOUNTERCPA-GEOMETRY
May 12, 20264,433 COLREGS Encounters, Zero Analyst Reviews. Head-On Events Need 23.8 Degrees and Carry the Least Classifier Certainty.
COLREGS-ENCOUNTERSCOMPLIANCE-DEFICIT
May 12, 20266% of Active Hex Cells Account for 71% of Encounter Events. The Resolution-8 Density Distribution Breaks Most Anomaly Models.
VESSEL-DENSITYH3-HEX-CELLS
May 8, 202657% of Predicted Hormuz Transits Disappear Before They Reach the Exit Zone. Bab-el-Mandeb Loses 9%.
CHOKEPOINT-TRANSITSSTRAIT-OF-HORMUZ
May 7, 20262,241 Vessels Made an Unexplained 94-Degree Course Change at 7 Knots Last Month. They Were Avoiding Something That Wasn't Broadcasting AIS.
GHOST-VESSELSSOLO-MANEUVERS
May 7, 2026197 Shell Hops, 425 MMSI Changes, 383 Renames: The 1,005 Identity Mutation Events in 33 Days
VESSEL-IDENTITYSHELL-HOPS
May 5, 20264,578 High-Severity Behavioral Motifs, Zero Acknowledged: AIS Manipulation Makes Up 42% of the Fleet Alert Stack
MOTIF-ALERTSAIS-MANIPULATION
May 5, 2026Rule 17 in the Wild: 72,113 Handoffs, 75% Extremis, and What That Says About Who Is Actually Avoiding Collisions
RULE17COLREGS
May 1, 2026Recent Departures
ALISIOSBaltimore · bulk_unknown
53ktWOOLLOOMOOLOONewcastle · coal
48ktDARYA RASHMISantos · grain
27ktENERGY GLORYGladstone · coal
54ktXIN LIAN YUN GANGHamburg · grain
15ktMADREDEUSGladstone · coal
54kt