See market shifts before the reports do.
Seasonal anomaly detection with year-over-year comparisons, trade route shift analysis with market share tracking, and commodity flow forecasting with Holt-Winters statistical models.
Seasonal Anomaly Detection
Every port has a seasonal export rhythm driven by harvest cycles, weather, and market demand. We compute weekly baselines using three years of historical data and flag when current throughput deviates beyond two standard deviations — in either direction.
Year-over-year comparison against rolling seasonal baselines at weekly granularity
Route Shift Detection
When trade routes shift — grain moving from Black Sea to Asia, or US soy replacing Brazilian supply to Europe — the vessel destination field tells the story before cargo statistics do. We track destination distributions by port and commodity, alerting when market share moves.
Destination tracking reviewed by port, commodity, and vessel history
Commodity Flow Forecasting
Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing models the seasonal structure of export volumes. Combined with vessels currently loading and in-transit position data, it produces forward estimates with confidence intervals for analyst review against official reports.
Holt-Winters forecasts validated against USDA WASDE at weekly cadence
Destination Deception
Vessels frequently file false destinations to obscure cargo routing — declaring a neutral port while actually bound for a sanctioned destination. We detect destination changes mid-voyage, cross-reference with AIS gaps, and flag vessels whose stated destination diverges from their actual track.
Mid-voyage destination changes reviewed against AIS gaps and track evidence
Satellite Crop Intelligence
MODIS and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery feed NDVI crop-health context into commodity-flow review. Vegetation health indices are reviewed alongside vessel, port, USDA, and EIA evidence instead of being presented as standalone forecasts.
NDVI context from MODIS + Sentinel-2 for analyst-reviewed flow estimates