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The Flow Report

Commodity intelligence · Vessel tracking · Physics-informed analytics · Spatial intelligence

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62 analysis reports

Recurring Figure

Congestion Tracker

Recurring figure: where queue pressure is distorting commodity flows right now.

Rotterdam leads with 15.3h median wait and 495 vessels waiting.

View live tracker
Rotterdam
NL
Worsening
Median wait
15.3h
Waiting
495
P90 65.0h · Avg 26.1h
Singapore
SG
Critical
Median wait
9.7h
Waiting
799
P90 87.7h · Avg 28.5h
Rouen
FR
Critical
Median wait
4.0h
Waiting
40
P90 56.7h · Avg 17.3h
🔍AnalysisApr 24, 2026·5 min read

Draft-Survey Commodity Flow Estimates: 13.2M Tons at US Gulf, 2.4M Tons at Newcastle, and the Mississippi Spring Constraint

The draft-survey method estimates cargo from the difference between arrival and departure drafts via AIS. Across 1,705 US grain vessels and 35 Newcastle coal carriers, the estimate arrives eight weeks before USDA. The Mississippi spring constraint exposes the method's weakest assumption....

draft_survey_commodity_flow_atlassignalmississippi-barge-spring-draft-constraint-overwatch-2026-04-12,us-grain-export-draft-survey-2026-04-09,newcastle-coal-loading-draft-survey-april-2026consolidates[object Object]newcastle coal 30d[object Object]us grain week of 2026-03-30
DRAFT-SURVEYCOMMODITY-FLOWEXPORT-ESTIMATESMETHODOLOGYMISSISSIPPI-CONSTRAINT
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🔍Analysis

Vessel Identity Risk: How Flag State, Class Rarity, Phantom Fleets, and Name Changes Each Contribute to the Same Sanctions Exposure

Flag state stratifies fleets from 19.8 to 31.2 average risk. LNG critical rate is 5.3× tankers. Six fully anonymous vessels score 100. Twenty-two renames and five MMSI swaps in 30 days — four compounding identity signals, not one.

Apr 24, 2026·5 min
VESSEL-IDENTITYFLAG-STATE

Recent Departures

BG SAPPHIREAntwerp · grain
95kt
APL HOUSTONAntwerp · grain
50kt
YE110 ANNA-CHRISTINAntwerp · unknown
13kt
YE110 ANNA-CHRISTINRotterdam · unknown
32kt
YE-238 GEERTRUIDARotterdam · unknown
12kt
ELBRUNNERHamburg · grain
51kt